In one sense, energy doesn’t matter all that much to what’s coming. Once debt reaches a certain level, oil can be $10 a barrel or $200, and either way we’re in trouble. But the cost of energy can still play a role in the timing and shape of the next financial crisis. The housing/derivatives bubble […]
“Should Brazil’s inflation, slowing economic growth and the political risk put investors off? Not necessarily, according to one Latin America analyst. “I think the long-term fundamentals in the country are still quite good, when you’re looking ahead five to 10 years. It’s not just about the growth rate, it’s about the markets and where the […]
Most people – certainly most governments and economists – define inflation as a general rise in prices. But this is wrong. Inflation is an increase in the money supply, of which a rising general price level is just one possible result – and not the most common one. More often, excessive money creation shows up […]
Fed Balance Sheet vs. Stock Market; Will QE Cause Inflation? US in a Minsky Bubble? About to Go Japanese? Looming Credit Crunch?
“With little or no bank lending growth, decelerating wage growth, and trend growth of real GDP per capita at 0% to negative implies the 3- and 5-year change rates of US M2+ will decelerate from 2-3% to 0-1% in the next 5-6 years as occurred during the early to late ’00s in Japan. We’re not […]